Department of Economics

Undergraduate Honor Theses

2022-2023 Spring ECON 496 Seminar - Undergraduate Honors Theses

Locating disaster response facilities in Izmir (best thesis award)

Abstract

This undergraduate thesis proposal aims to propose the use of the Dijkstra algorithm to locate disaster response facilities in the cityof Izmir, Turkey, which is frequently exposed to natural disasters due to the

presence of several fault lines. The study's motivation comes from the need to improve the city's preparedness and response to natural disasters, especially earthquakes. The proposed research will utilize the OpenStreetMap database and the PostgreSQL database management system, along with PostGIS and pgrouting extensions, and Dijkstra's algorithm to identify the most effective locations for

disaster response facilities, taking into account various factors such as proximity to high-risk areas, ease of access, and hospital locations. The study's outcome was the location identification of disaster response

facilities. This study's significance lies in its potential to contribute to effective disaster response planning in Izmir and provide valuable insights for policymakers and decision-makers.

Keywords: Disaster preparedness and response, facility location, shortest-path algorithm

Click here to download full paper.

Macroeconomic Outlook of Foreign Investors in BIST 100

Abstract

Domestic and foreign investors play an important role in the capital markets. It is especially important for developing countries and these countries purpose the number of investors to be high and always show interest in the capital markets because their macroeconomic structures will be positively affected. In this paper, it will be mentioned which macroeconomic factors are effective in the recent decrease in the rate of foreign investors in the stock market traded under Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST 100) and which reasons are the main reasons. Detailed information about BIST 100 will be given, and the narration will be strengthened by using graphs and tables of subject headings. In this context, monthly foreign investor clearing rates in the stock market, monthly change rates in the exchange rate, inflation, industrial production index, discount rate and BIST100 monthly return rate between 2006-2022 will be used as the data set, and the data are taken from MATRIKS, TCMB, VAP, MKK and Investing. Econometric analysis will be performed using R-Studio program with correlation, ADF Test, Phillips Perron Tests and multicollinearity. As a result of the analysis, especially inflation and the volatility in the exchange rate may be the two most significant variables that cause the foreign investor clearing rate to decrease.

Keywords: BIST 100, Investor, Foreign portfolio investment, macroeconomic factors

JEL classification: Correlation, ADF Test, Phillips Perron Test, multicollinearity

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The Relationship Between Current Account and Economic Growth: A Time Series Analysis in Türkiye during 1975-2022

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between current account balance and economic growth in Türkiye. A time series analysis was used, starting period from 1975 to 2022. Using unit root tests were performed by annual statistics on the real GDP growth and current account balance of Türkiye. For this purpose, Granger causality, Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, and Phillips-Perron test were performed on the variables using annual data between 1975-2022. The World Bank, IMF, and TÜİK provided annual statistics on current account balance and real GDP growth, which were used in the research. To ascertain stationarity, the data is put via unit root tests such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Phillips-Perron (PP) test. The Granger causality test revealed a causality between the growth rate and to current account deficit. The findings indicate that both variables are stationary, supporting the validity of the analysis. The paper concludes by interpreting the analysis results and providing suggestions. It is crucial to comprehend that the model only accounts for a fraction of the current account's fluctuation, suggesting that other factors may also have an impact on its dynamics.

Keywords: Current account, Economic Growth, Granger Causality Analysis

JEL Classification: F32, C32, F43, F47

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The Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in Türkiye

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Türkiye was examined within the framework of the data covering the 2001:1-2022:3 periods. Time series techniques were used as an econometric method in the study. Stationarity analysis was performed for the inflation rate and real GDP growth variables. For this analysis, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests were used. As a result of the unit root tests, it was determined that the series of real GDP growth and inflation rate were stationary at level values and first differences. A single cointegration analysis was made between the inflation rate and economic growth and it was found that the series acted dependent on each other in the long run. Granger Causality Analysis was performed using the estimated Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method. According to the results of the Granger causality test, a causal relationship between the inflation rate and economic growth could not be found. The finding concluded that inflation has not affected economic growth and at the same time, the hypothesis of a unidirectional causal relationship from inflation to economic growth could not be supported.

Keywords: Inflation, Economic Growth, Granger Causality Analysis

JEL Classification: C32, E31, F43, F47

Click here to download full paper.

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